Valentine knows the game, but AL Central is a mystery
Bobby Valentine has some catching up to do and he's not afraid to admit it.
Valentine, following his interview Thursday with the Indians for their manager's job, told reporters that after managing the past six years in Japan, he needs a crash course on the Indians, the AL Central and what he called a "whole generation of major-league players that I've only seen on TV."
"I don't know as much about Cleveland as someone interviewing for their manager's job probably should," said Valentine. "I could have crammed for the last six days, read every article and called every friend to get every bit of information just in case one of the guys asked me who the starting third baseman is going to be next year. I didn't do it.
"I can tell you that I don't know about the American League. I don't know about the Central. I don't know about the Indians. But I sure as hell am willing to learn, and spend 28 hours a day if necessary, to know everything that I could possibly know."
Valentine has some other information gaps. Such as the growth of baseball statistics over the past four years. What do all those funny abbreviations mean, anyway? Not to mention what's required to police baseball's steroid problem.
Yes, Valentine has the longest and best track record of any of the four finalists the Indians are considering to replace Eric Wedge. The others are former Washington Nationals manager Manny Acta, who interviewed Tuesday, Tribe minor-league manager Torey Lovullo, who interviews today, and Dodger hitting coach Don Mattingly, whose interview has yet to be scheduled.
Acta, on Wednesday, had his second interview with Houston for its manager's job.
Yet none of them have to play catch-up the way Valentine does. Which probably isn't the best way to impress a potential employer.
Now for another detail -- the rebuilding Indians aren't going to be good next year. So why did Valentine, 59, come to Cleveland to meet with GM Mark Shapiro, assistant GM Chris Antonetti and Indians President Paul Dolan? Obviously, he didn't realize that he may have cost himself the job by admitting to the Tribe's stat-obssessed front office that he may not know what OPS means (on base percentage plus slugging percentage).
"I've managed 3,500 games," said Valentine. "If you count the ones in Japan, I have about 1,600 victories. I love the fact that I had that opportunity. I cherish the thought that I have another opportunity.
(c) 2009 Cleveland Live, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
The Terrible John Grabow: Why Standard Stats Don't Work in the Bullpen
If you have ever read Baseball Prospectus' Baseball Between the Numbers , or a similarly analytical baseball text, the argument against standard pitching statistics (wins and losses, ERA, and saves) is not new to you. By now, most educated baseball fans understand that all three of those statistics reflect myriad factors far beyond the pitcher's control (and, in fact, relatively few that fall within it).
But while some fans have eagerly accepted the common-sense preaching of sabermetric prophets, others continue to live in hazes of either delusion or obstinacy. This is especially true when it comes to relief pitchers. Though ERA does a particularly woeful job of capturing contributions made out of the bullpen (when so much of the game depends upon context, preferred kinds of outs, and leverage), it continues to be the hallmark of a relief pitcher's worth.
Other flawed metrics used to measure the performance of bullpen men include holds, saves, and record, all of which better reflect their teams' performance than their own.
Unfortunately for the 2009 (and, it appears inevitable, 2010) Chicago Cubs, one fan who fights statistical analysis tooth-and-nail every day sits in the general manager's chair. According to Cubs beat writers Carrie Muskat and Paul Sullivan, Jim Hendry has already begun contract negotiations with southpaw reliever John Grabow, whom he ill-advisedly acquired in July as a (rather foolhardy) attempt to keep Chicago in the National League Central race, from which they were already quickly fading.
How Grabow's ineptitude goes so unnoticed is a question better answered by those who fail to notice it. For my part, I will simply undertake the task of demonstrating his more dire failings.
First, he lacks the three fundamental and repeatable skills of a good pitcher: control, stuff, and the ability to induce ground balls. No pitcher statistics correlate more highly in the same player from year to year than (in order of best correlation coefficient): ground ball/fly ball ratio, strikeout rate, and walk rate.
Grabow looks bad in every category. His walk rate in 2009, 4.98 per nine innings, ranked 19th-highest among Major League relievers. He made marginal forward progress under the (dubious) tutelage of Larry Rothschild, walking "only" 12 in 25 innings as a Cub, after issuing an obscene 28 free passes in 47.1 frames in Pittsburgh.
Still, control is a clear problem: walks go a long way toward explaining his inability to ever post a single-season WHIP under 1.28, and his failure to reach league average in that statistic in 2009 (he surrendered a 1.41 WHIP, compared to the league average for relievers of a shade under 1.40).
Nor can he miss bats with sufficient aplomb to remain consistent. Grabow struck out fewer batters per nine innings in 2009 than he ever had before, at a rather bland 7.09 K/9. Thanks to that troubling lack of punch-out skill, he ranked even worse in strikeout-to-walk ratio (17th-worst among relievers) than in walk rate alone.
At least all of those lacking skills used to have a strong ground ball percentage as a counterbalance. But after beginning his career with at least five seasons of a 1.44:1 or higher ground ball to fly ball ratio, Grabow has been utterly neutral the past two seasons: 0.98 and 1.05, respectively. That may have been a tolerable tendency in relatively neutral PNC Park, but in hitter-friendly Wrigley Field (12 percent more homers and overall runs than Pittsburgh in 2009), it's a fatal flaw.
Defense also masks some of Grabow's problems. He spent years inducing grounder after grounder to the likes of Freddy Sanchez and Jack Wilson, premier defensive middle infielders. Then, over the last two seasons, he simply watched fly balls fall harmlessly into the gloves of Nate McLouth, Nyjer Morgan, and Andrew McCutchen.
Barring something unforeseen (like a trade for J.J. Hardy or Carl Crawford), or something stupid (like signing Mike Cameron or Coco Crisp), Grabow cannot expect to get such help from the Cubs (who feature miserable defenders in left field and at third base, and probably at second, too) in 2010.
Grabow has another point which works strongly in his favor in the myopic eyes of Hendry. He has appeared in 149 games over the past two seasons, the seventh-highest total in the Majors, and sufficient evidence for Hendry to declare him a rubber arm, with whom manager Lou Piniella can expect extra flexibility.
It is all too easy, however, to confuse prolificacy with durability. All too often, managers deploy pitchers based on the manager's perceptions about pitcher durability and usage in general, without regard to an individual's true abilities. So does Grabow actually possess this knack for throwing often, and doing it well?
The numbers say no. In the last two years, Grabow has appeared 39 times on zero days of rest. He logged 36.1 innings in those appearances. He struck out 31, a solid number somewhat higher than his actual rate of whiffs during that span. But he also walked 25, and allowed 27 hits, making his composite WHIP for those games 1.43.
Finally, there is the question, ever-relevant to the examination of an individual pitcher, of how luck influenced his performance. Grabow clearly has been the beneficiary of good luck over the past two seasons, the first two in which he has broken out as a so-called "fireman."
In 2008, he registered a .251 batting average on balls in play, a statistic over which pitchers exhibit relatively little control, and one that places him well below the league average of .304. In 2009, that number rose slightly, to .279, but still registered as well below league average, a red flag that Grabow got rather lucky.
If that weren't enough, Grabow also notched a home run per fly ball rate of just 5.7 percent in 2009, about half the league average, and a highly suspicious figure for a man who has seen his fly-ball percentage rise over the past two years, and who had never before managed a rate of less than 10 percent.
Even stranger, the percentage of his fly balls that stayed on the infield (a fairly repeatable skill, if one trusts the measure of year-to-year correlation as an indicator of consistency) fell by nearly a third from 2008 to '09, from 11.6 percent to a flat eight percent.
Although his demands (three years, somewhere between eight and nine million dollars) make him infuriatingly inefficient, the Cubs will likely re-sign Grabow, and that is okay. I do not write with the intent of picking on the lefty, who will be 31 years old next season. Rather, this is meant as an allegorical piece, from which I hope readers will draw the following broader conclusions:
1. Team contribution and overall quality simply cannot be inferred from top-line, generic, old-school baseball statistics, especially for relief pitchers. Scouting reports, more advanced metrics, and component rates provide better indicators.
2. Teams should, but generally don't, consider the way their defense and ballpark affect their pitchers, and vice versa. If your two best hitters are poor defensive middle infielders (Florida Marlins), aggressively pursue fly ball pitchers. If you play on a mountaintop and have one baseball's best double-play combinations, try to keep the ball on the ground.
If your entire lineup can hit (a little) but not field, you are the Washington Nationals, and your best shot is probably to spend top draft picks on flame-throwing wunderkinds every year until you're halfway decent.
3. If a guy can't throw the ball over the plate, and if he can't miss bats when he does, he is not a multi-million-dollar pitcher, regardless of his other indicators.
4. In many cases, managers exercise absolute influence over relievers. Clubs should pursue hurlers who can succeed in the roles to which the Major League manager is likely to assign them.
5. Platoon advantages do not stop where handedness leaves off. Pitchers who encourage grounders are better against ground ball hitters, and fly-ball pitchers do better versus fly-ball hitters.
The case study of Grabow informs some of these ideas; others bear upon other projected members of the Cubs' pen in 2010. But for now, I will be content with just one objection. Jim Hendry, please, in the name of all that is good and rationally sound, let John Grabow go.
(c) 2009 Bleacher Report, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
ALCS predicted to be long, hard fight
Most journalists polled say bullpen puts Yanks on top.
You can look at the hard stats. The ones that suggest the Yankees have the highest payroll in baseball, an extremely prolific offense, some of the most accomplished starting pitchers and the best regular-season record in 2009. Then you can look at aspects numbers can't fully measure. Like the Angels' perseverance through tragedy, the leadership that comes from guys like Torii Hunter, the relatively unheralded position players who have stepped up and the manner in which they've found a way to consistently win games.
Who will prevail in the upcoming American League Championship Series? That will be decided on the field -- not on paper -- soon enough. But some of the top journalists in the country have already weighed in with their predictions.
MLB.com polled 13 baseball writers and broadcasters -- seven from national media outlets as well as five from the New York market and one from California -- and nine of them picked the Yankees to take the series. But it likely won't be easy, as seven said the ALCS will go the maximum seven games.
It will all start on Friday with Game 1, which will get under way at Yankee Stadium at 7:57 p.m. ET and be broadcast on FOX.
"To me, both teams are pretty even in every area except one: the bullpen," said Suzyn Waldman, a Yankees broadcaster for WCBS radio. "The Yankees' bullpen has been terrific, and there is only one Mariano Rivera."
That's definitely true. And you can't overlook that the Angels' 4.49 bullpen ERA ranked 11th in the AL during the regular season, and the Yankees' 3.91 ERA was fifth.
With New York possibly sticking with a three-man rotation for this series and using Joba Chamberlain late in games, that relief corps could only get better.
"I just don't know if you can win a playoff series with [the Angels'] Brian Fuentes and Darren Oliver; if you can beat the Yankees four times with that," Howard Bryant of ESPN.com said.
But the Yankees do have some questions about the starting rotation.
Will the Yankees get the lights-out A.J. Burnett, or the mediocre one that had a tendency of showing up during the regular season? Can 37-year-old Andy Pettitte continue to perform at a high level in October? And is Game 1 starter CC Sabathia completely over his previous playoff shortcomings?
Pete Caldera of The Record of Bergen County, N.J., believes that Sabathia is.
"I think CC has a chance to dominate this series like no other postseason he's been involved in, because of the rest he's had leading up to this," he said.
But don't overlook the Angels' starting staff. One that includes John Lackey, Joe Saunders, Jered Weaver and newcomer Scott Kazmir.
"The Angels' starting rotation is deeper," Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com believes.
But how will it fare against the Yankees' offense, one that finally has the highest-paid player in baseball swinging a hot postseason bat?
Alex Rodriguez's struggles in the playoffs in recent years have been well-documented, but he seemed like a different person with his performance in a sweep of the Twins in the AL Division Series. In those three games, A-Rod went 5-for-11 (a .455 batting average) with two home runs and six RBIs and pretty much put the Yankees on his back in a thrilling Game 2 win.
"A-Rod is not the drama queen anymore," Gordon Edes of Yahoo Sports said. "The only headlines he's making are with his home run."
And when you throw that in with a lineup that features the likes of Derek Jeter, Johnny Damon, Mark Teixeira, Hideki Matsui and so many others, watch out, Anaheim.
"I think Alex swinging the bat the way he is right now, they're a dangerous team," Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated said. "You can't avoid him, and if you do, someone else is going to make you pay."
It isn't hard to pick the Yankees to represent the AL in the Fall Classic. They spent big money on pitching in the offseason, the back end of their bullpen is flat-out scary and the entire batting order can hurt you.
But there's just something about this Angels team, which beat the Yankees in the '05 ALDS and went 5-5 against them during the regular season.
"They're confident against the Yankees, and I think the Yankees have some kind of mental block," Ed Price of AOL Fanhouse said.
"There's just something about the way [the Angels are] winning games," Bill Madden of the New York Daily News added. "I just have a feeling about this team."
Perhaps it's more than a feeling.
Not many predicted a series sweep over the playoff-tested Red Sox in the ALDS, but the Angels made quick work of Boston with dominant starts by Lackey and Weaver in the first two contests and a thrilling comeback in Game 3.
"The Angels are a better offensive team than they've been in previous postseasons, and they have rested pitching," Mel Antonen of USA Today pointed out.
But home-field advantage could play a big factor.
Since the All-Star break, the Yankees suffered just eight home losses, and they finished with a regular-season record of 57-24 at Yankee Stadium that was tops in the Majors.
"I think they're so evenly matched that home-field advantage is the thing that would tip it [the Yankees'] way," Mark Whicker of The Orange County Register in Santa Ana, Calif., said.
"Home field is a big thing for me," Sweeny Murti of WFAN radio in New York added.
Recently, MLB.com broke down the ALCS into 13 different categories -- catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, outfield, starting pitching, closer, middle relief, bench, manager, coaching staff and fans -- and the Yankees held the edge there, too, at 5-3 (with five spots being even).
"I think they'll play through the rain, as they always do here [in New York], and [the Yankees will] just need three starters," Filip Bondy of the Daily News said, regarding how a possible postponement on Friday could alter the Yankees' rotation plans for the ALCS. "I think that's the difference."
Meanwhile, Jon Heyman of SI.com simply believes the Yankees will come out on top because they "have a little more power and a better bullpen."
But the way the Angels have prevailed this season suggests things won't be so elementary.
(c) 2001-2009 MLB Advanced Media, L.P. All rights reserved.
Final races too close for comfort
Dodgers, Tigers clinging to one-game leads after losses.
It never fails.
The final weekend of a Major League Baseball season is always teeming with impossible excitement and suspense, making you wait as long as possible to know exactly when and where to be for even a single Division Series matchup.
Now it is even the case in 2009, a season that supposedly was an aberration because of so many early clinchers. There are two unbelievable division races featuring teams that are suddenly only one game apart with just mere hours left in the regular season.
And if that's not enough, then consider this fact: No team in Major League history has led its division or league from May 10 or earlier until the final week and lost it -- and both leaders in these remaining races are in position to make that dubious history.
Will the Tigers hold off the Twins in the American League Central? What will it be like when a full house at Comerica Park settles in for White Sox at Tigers -- most likely all knowing the final score of the Twins' afternoon game?
Will the Dodgers hold off the Rockies and hold onto their long-expected home-field NLDS advantage? Colorado just opened this classic final-weekend series at Dodger Stadium with a thrilling 4-3 victory, and it's clear that these Rockies no longer are an automatic "W" for the Dodgers. Which will be NL West champs and which will be NL Wild Card?
Two more days, and maybe more if an AL Central play-in game is needed. Did you really think this was going to all be decided at least a few days early this time? Did you really think the Metrodome was going to go out without a fight? Did you really think it would come down to some final Fan Appreciation Day thank-yous but no standings drama?
It's what we've come to expect.
"Wouldn't you know it, the count goes all the way," legendary Dodgers broadcaster Vin Scully told his audience as Rockies closer Huston Street faced Rafael Furcal for the final out of Friday night. Indeed, the whole 2009 MLB season kind of feels that way. Here is a closer look at the wild finish:
NL West and NL Wild Card
If you were watching the Rockies-Dodgers game, then you heard Scully calling still more October drama in his long broadcasting career. As Street faced Furcal with that full count and two out in the bottom of the ninth in front of 54,131 at Chavez Ravine, there was a swing and then a liner toward second. Here was Scully's call:
"Fastball ... line drive at [Clint] Barmes, and that's the game. And the Rockies have won five straight, the Dodgers have lost five straight. The Dodgers now lead the Rockies by one game, and [Saturday] night Jorge De La Rosa, a 16-game winner, will take the mound against Clayton Kershaw. Until then, we wish you all a very pleasant good evening."
It would be a lot more pleasant for Scully's primary audience if the Dodgers could figure out a way to wrap up this division before time runs out. They have led a division or Wild Card race more days this season than any other team, 173 days now, but they are doing the opposite of peaking for the playoffs. Kershaw struggled with his slider his last time out in a loss to the Pirates, and in De La Rosa the Dodgers face a pitcher who is trying to match the Rockies club record with 17 wins matched only by Jeff Francis (2007), Pedro Astacio (1999) and Kevin Ritz ('95).
Troy Tulowitzki's two-run homer on an 0-2 pitch from reliever Ronald Belisario was the big blow on Friday, giving the Rockies a 4-1 lead. It was crucial because the Dodgers answered with a pair of runs in the bottom of the inning, their final scoring.
This is the same matchup that has been so lopsided in the past, with the Dodgers winning 12 of their previous 15 meetings. In other words, the Rockies had won only three games from Los Angeles this entire season, and they would have to match that total in this weekend series to become the first team in history to come back from as many as 15 1/2 games back to win a division or league title.
The Dodgers honored Tommy Lasorda before Friday's game for 60 years as a part of Dodger Blue, from player to manager to exec and ambassador, and not even that could stem the tide. They will have to fight all the way for a division title they seemed to have sewn up so long, long ago.
Best NL records
A key element of this final weekend also is the determination of best records by NL postseason clubs. The crucial home-field advantage is on the line for both NLDS, and it is up in the air for these final two days.
With its loss to Colorado, the Dodgers entered their game on Saturday night with a 1 1/2-game lead over the Phillies in that department. The Dodgers are 93-67, compared to 92-69 for the NL East-champion Phillies and 91-70 for the NL Central-champion Cardinals, who can't finish higher than the No. 3 seed in the NL. And if the Rockies win these next two games at Dodger Stadium, they would be 94-68, securing the NL's top record.
Should the Rockies win the NL West, note that the Phillies hold a 4-2 tiebreaker advantage.
AL Central
In 2006, the Tigers lost five in a row, finished one game behind Minnesota to settle for the Wild Card -- and then surprised the Yankees in the ALDS en route to the World Series. It was Kansas City that spoiled the Tigers' division hopes in that final weekend -- Detroit had led the AL Central since May 14 of that season -- and now here we are three years later with Detroit fans hoping the Royals can keep Minnesota out of the picture and avoid a real indignity.
Detroit's lead is down to just a half-game again over Minnesota with two games left for the Twins and one left for the Tigers. Detroit could only tip its cap as Jake Peavy held the Tigers to two hits over eight scoreless innings in his final White Sox start of the season -- a vintage Peavy outing. Meanwhile, the Twins were jumping out to a fast 10-0 lead over Kansas City and then holding on for dear life in a 10-7 victory.
Next came the moment that loomed all week as the really tricky part for the Twins if they are to keep Metrodome baseball going for more than this final regular-season weekend. They hoped to win a game started by Greinke -- and succeeded. The Royals ace was looking to close out his season with victory No. 17 to go with a current 2.06 ERA and 237 strikeouts, but Minnesota scraped its way to a 5-4 victory on Michael Cuddyer's eighth-inning homer.
Greinke faced the Twins on Sunday in Kansas City, holding them to one run on seven hits in seven innings of a 4-1 win. He entered Saturday having given up just two earned runs in his past six starts, and he was 4-0 in that stretch with a 0.43 ERA. His strikeout total was seven shy of Dennis Leonard's Royals record of 244 set in 1977, and the right-hander fanned five on Saturday.
The Tigers face Freddy Garcia and the White Sox later Saturday. If the division ends up tied, a tiebreaker game would be played at Minnesota on Tuesday.
Yankees' decision awaits
The team with the best record in baseball has just been waiting for its moment to announce The Decision. Will the Yankees open on Wednesday as ALDS "A" series or will they wait until Thursday to open in the shorter (by days) ALDS "B" series? It is their call because of their record, and each day they have been waiting on Detroit and Minnesota before announcing their choice.
The Yankees have up to one hour after the final out of the last game that settles AL matchups, before revealing their decision. It is a significant issue, because a lot of fans are waiting to find out whether they will be going to a playoff opener on Wednesday or Thursday. The Yankees have all but announced publicly that they will opt for a Wednesday start.
Whichever ALDS opener the Yankees choose, Red Sox at Angels will be Game 1 in the other one.
Year of the Cycle
B.J. Upton of the Rays hit for the cycle in a 13-4 victory over the Yankees -- the first Tampa Bay player ever to do it -- and somehow it seemed fitting that someone would do that in the final weekend of this regular season.
Upton's cycle is the eighth in the Majors this season, tying an MLB record set in 1933. Prior to Upton, Felix Pie was the last player to hit for the cycle this season on Aug. 14, against the Angels.
Six of this year's cycles occurred in the AL, and Upton's became the 289th in Major League history.
Speaking of individual achievements, it is going to be worth watching Albert Pujols' stats very closely in these final two days. He just went 3-for-4 and added another RBI in his bid for baseball's first Triple Crown since 1967. Pujols is at .331 -- 10 points shy of Florida's Hanley Ramirez in the NL batting race. Pujols leads in homers with 47 and is five behind NL leader Ryan Howard with 135 RBIs -- with Prince Fielder between them in that category. It's still a longshot, but it's Pujols and never say never.
(c) 2001-2009 MLB Advanced Media, L.P. All rights reserved.
'Little things' help A-Rod solve October
NEW YORK -- Perhaps it was an aberration, perhaps not. But for one night at least, Alex Rodriguez's postseason woes disappeared.
Rodriguez hit two singles with runners in scoring position on Wednesday, including a key two-out hit in the fifth inning that gave the Yankees a two-run lead and knocked Twins starter Brian Duensing out of Game 1 of the American League Division Series -- a 7-2 New York victory.
"It just feels good to contribute and do the little things," Rodriguez said. "That's what we've been trying to talk about all year, so it definitely felt good not trying to do too much and getting a big hit."
Dating back to Game 4 of the 2004 AL Championship Series, Rodriguez had come to bat with 38 runners on base over a span of 61 postseason at-bats. He stranded every one of them, going 0-for-29 with runners on base. And his only RBI during that span came on a solo home run in Game 4 of the 2007 ALDS, with the Yankees trailing the Indians, 6-2.
The numbers were staggering from every angle. From his third at-bat of Game 4 of the 2004 ALCS through his second at-bat of Wednesday's game against the Twins, for example, Rodriguez was 8-for-61 (.131) in postseason play, with one RBI. He had 19 strikeouts and was 0-for-12 with runners in scoring position.
But the Yankees ignored those numbers leading up to this series, instead focusing on Rodriguez's .344 average this September and October.
"We had talked about that we liked where Alex was at this time of the year -- physically, mentally, he finished up strong, had a great month of September," manager Joe Girardi said. "It's important."
Though Rodriguez flied out in his first at-bat with a runner in scoring position on Wednesday, he received a quick chance for redemption in the fifth. With Derek Jeter on first base and two outs, Rodriguez laced a Duensing fastball into left field for a single, padding what had been a one-run Yankees lead.
Two innings later, Rodriguez smacked a Jon Rauch curveball into right field, plating Jeter once again. And so on a night in which Johnny Damon and Mark Teixeira went a combined 1-for-8 in front of him, Rodriguez managed to give the middle of Girardi's lineup a healthy boost.
"Sometimes, you're going to swing the bat well and you're not going to get hits," Jeter said. "He seemed like he was pretty comfortable all year."
"He seemed relaxed," catcher Jorge Posada said. "He seemed focused out there."
Rodriguez, as has been his custom this year, deflected talk of individual achievements every which way he could. Already, Rodriguez has enjoyed a remarkably successful season, considering the time he missed due to right hip surgery. A-Rod finished the season at .286 with 30 home runs and 100 RBIs, and he now has a chance to extend that run into late October.
Rodriguez just doesn't want to talk about it much.
"Everyone keeps focusing on personal [things], but this is about our team," Rodriguez said. "Tonight was another great team effort. It certainly felt good to get that hit out of the way, but CC [Sabathia] and the bullpen did a fantastic job and the guys swung the bats well."
Rather than delve more thoroughly into his 2-for-4 effort, Rodriguez left the chatter to his teammates -- many of the same teammates who unsuccessfully tried to pick up his slack in the 2005, '06 and '07 Division Series, along with the latter half of the '04 ALCS.
As they have all season, the Yankees harped on Rodriguez's newly relaxed air, which he has carried with him since rejoining the team in May. This did not seem like a man with a $275 million weight on his shoulders.
Instead, it seemed like the Rodriguez the Yankees have missed.
"I think a lot of times, people read a little too much into final statistics," Jeter said. "All you can do is go up there and swing the bat, hopefully hit the ball hard. You can't really guide it."
But you can drive it.
"He had a big game today," Jeter said. "Expect him to continue it."
(c) 2001-2009 MLB Advanced Media, L.P. All rights reserved.
Rodney may bend, but he rarely breaks
DETROIT -- The numbers don't add up for Fernando Rodney. The presence does.
Tigers fans have spent most of the year wondering how a closer who has blown only one of his 37 save chances this year can make so many of them seem like a thrill ride. Three-run leads have turned into one-run games twice this month. Other games come perilously close, such as the night he walked the bases loaded with Cardinals in a three-run game and escaped with a double play.
Rodney has pitched a perfect ninth inning in less than a quarter of his save situations. He has had multiple baserunners in a dozen.
His teammates and coaches know how he does it. The same mentality that allows him to shrug off the couple runs or hits that bring the potential tying run to the plate allows him to execute the pitch that leaves it there.
"There's nothing soft about Rodney," manager Jim Leyland said last month. "Rodney's a trooper. He's a gamer."
Rodney doesn't get rattled. He might get out of whack mechanically, fling a fastball to the backdrop or spike a changeup in the dirt, but it won't be out of fear. If the Tigers can finish off the Twins and get to the postseason, a ninth inning with Rodney is going to be quite a show on the national stage, just in time for possibly the least heralded closer headed for the playoffs to become a free agent.
There's a statistical dichotomy going on here between the efficiency and the damage. According to research from STATS, no closer with at least 25 saves in a season and only one blown chance has posted an ERA higher than 3.00 since the save became an official stat in 1969.
Rodney's 4.41 ERA would obviously obliterate that mark. Even if he blows another save chance, his ERA would be the highest for anyone with at least 25 saves and two blown opportunities, topping Ryan Dempster's 3.13 ERA.
To be fair, those numbers include a 6.19 ERA for Rodney in non-save situations, either when he's protecting a four-run lead or when he enters in a blowout to get in some work. His 2.89 ERA in save situations is much more reasonable, but still higher than expected.
His on-and-off issues with walks suggest an inconsistency, but there's nothing scattered about his end results. When the Tigers have needed the final out from Rodney, they've almost always gotten it. In that sense, he has blossomed into the front-line closer that Leyland and others in the organization had waited for him to become.
The comparisons some in Detroit have made with Todd Jones aren't well-grounded. Though the sense of suspense might be similar, their styles and routes to get their results are different. Jones mixed pitches, speeds and locations to get hitters to go for the pitch he wanted, not what they wanted.
Rodney is a high-velocity, high-strikeout pitcher whose combination of a high-90s fastball and low-80s changeup from the same motion are devastating. But he's also a pitcher with a history of falling out of form easily, with what used to be devastating results. He has tempered those spells with hard work between outings, throwing a lot of drills designed to improve command.
"He busts his butt," pitching coach Rick Knapp said. "He really works hard. I mean, he works as hard as anybody. You see him after the game, and he's in the weight room, doing his stuff to make sure he's in perfect tune, ready condition. He's the first one out every day pitching-wise, stretching to make sure that he's prepared. It's not the Rodney that you would stereotype."
Like Jones, Rodney is not a pitcher to let an opponent rattle him. His games might bend, but in close games, they rarely break, no matter who's at the plate. Before he sent down Torii Hunter, Vladimir Guerrero and Juan Rivera in order last month against the Angels, he said he knew they would be the final three outs of the game.
More recently, after a Brandon Inge diving catch finished off a Rodney save last Thursday at Cleveland, Rodney returned the gesture by rebounding from a fly ball over center field Curtis Granderson to finish off a save over Minnesota Tuesday.
In other words, there's a swagger, which Leyland loves to see.
"I do think the closer dictates a lot of the mentality of the club," Leyland said. "If you have closers that are blowing them, that takes some heart out of your team. And when you've got a closer that's closing most all of them, that gives your team that little swagger in that inning that's real important."
That confidence from Leyland has meant plenty to Rodney.
"I feel more comfortable this year," Rodney said, "because he gives me a chance. It's important to me that he gives me a chance, and I can show every night, every time I go to the mound, I can do what I'm supposed to do."
(c) 2001-2009 MLB Advanced Media, L.P. All rights reserved.
Raburn's bat getting hot at right time
CLEVELAND -- Ryan Raburn used to be the superutility player without a regular role. Now, he's fitting into the Tigers' leadoff spot against lefties just fine.
When the Tigers called him up from Triple-A Toledo a few weeks into the season, manager Jim Leyland felt Raburn was almost playing afraid to make a mistake. He has been anything but timid down the stretch since getting a prominent role in Detroit's lineup.
Yet what began as a move almost by default to shift a struggling Curtis Granderson out of the leadoff spot against lefties, where he had hit under .200, has turned into a spark. Of the Tigers' nine home runs from Sept. 8 through Tuesday, Raburn had four of them. Three of them came out of the leadoff spot.
"He's had a heckuva year," Leyland said. "I couldn't be happier for him. He's such a great kid."
Raburn has shortened his swing this year, Leyland said, and it reflects in his specialty stats. His percentage of swinging strikes plummeted from 25 percent of his total pitches last year to 17 percent entering Wednesday. Both his percentages of foul balls and pitches put in play are up, the former of them dramatically.
Raburn has a decent outlook on the leadoff role. He only worries about it the first time up each game.
"It doesn't really matter whether it's the leadoff spot or not," Raburn said. "Just anytime you get in the lineup, really that leadoff spot's only to start the game off. Other than that, you can hit third, fourth or fifth. Anytime I'm in the lineup, I'm ready."
That said, he seems to be thriving there. Raburn is batting .311 (14-for-45) with four homers and seven RBIs from the leadoff spot, and he's 3-for-10 leading off games.
But the biggest change in Raburn, as Leyland sees it, is a boost of confidence.
"He's finally starting to believe he's a big leaguer," Leyland said. "I think that's the biggest thing for him. He was walking on eggshells in Spring Training. And when he came back [in April], he was still walking on eggshells.
"The confidence level he had didn't match the ability level he had. Now the confidence is starting to match the ability."
(c) 2001-2009 MLB Advanced Media, L.P. All rights reserved.
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